4
Stagger Lee
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 92
Santa Anita · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/2024 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/02/2024 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 01/03/2024 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |