2
Canto Della Terra
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 104
Santa Anita · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 0th | +5 |
| 2026-07-23 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-01-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Curragh | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2024-07-27 | Gowran Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2024 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 90% | +0.48 |
| 27/07/2024 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 93% | -0.02 |
| 15/09/2024 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 81% | +0.39 |
| 19/01/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |