8
Biscuits And Grits
8yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 10/09/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |