4
Liberate
9yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 89
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
73%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 28/05/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/06/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 10/07/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 19/12/2025 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 71% | -0.20 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |