5
Powerful Phil
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 53
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength18%
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 20/11/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 10/12/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/01/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 09/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 20/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |