2
Specialized
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 85
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -9.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2024 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 31/03/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 16/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 09/07/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 13/11/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 24/08/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |