Swing State
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 78
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-01-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-10-29 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/08/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 01/09/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 21/10/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 29/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 05/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 21/01/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |