9
Workstation
3yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 61
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength87%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength1%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 06/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |