7
Zakaria
8yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 23/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 22/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |