1
Aunt Mo
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 83
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 2nd | +5 |
| 2026-01-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength85%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 18% | -0.29 |
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 18/12/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 11/01/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |