5
Candlelight Hours
7yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 96
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
89%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-09-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/06/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 04/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |