Here's The Spider
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 86
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2024 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/06/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 06/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 31/07/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 23/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |