2
Ima Mom
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 69
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-17 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 13/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 06/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 17/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 09/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 14/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |