Lionistic
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 88
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-03-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/01/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 09/02/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |