7
Unchained Spirit
3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 77
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 24/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |