4
Vespera
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 88
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 19/08/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |