5
Dos Amores
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 83
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength89%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-03-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 16/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 26/03/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 20% | -0.76 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |