4
First Hill
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 84
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 08/02/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 78% | -0.15 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |