Ithinkiloveyou
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-12-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-11-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-10-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 23/11/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 56% | -0.35 |
| 17/12/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 15/01/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 05/03/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |