IvyArcIvyArc
2

Khali J

4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 78

Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

69%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength58%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Thistledown 05/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f 1195/08C9C5 @ Thistledown 03/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 75 · 6f 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 75 par3/10C5OR 75C5 @ Mahoning Valley 14/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 77 · 6f Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/01/2026 · OR 77 par14/01C5OR 77C5 @ Mahoning Valley 23/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 76 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/02/2026 · OR 76 par23/02C5OR 76C5 @ Mahoning Valley 30/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 76 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 76 par30/03C5OR 76C5 @ Thistledown 23/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 80 · 5f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 80 par23/04C5OR 80C8 @ Thistledown 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 5f110y Fas 119 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 79 par9/09C8OR 79projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-04-23Thistledown?2nd-1th+3
2026-03-30Mahoning Valley?2nd-1th+3
2026-02-23Mahoning Valley?4th1st+3
2026-01-14Mahoning Valley?3rd0th+3
2025-10-03Thistledown?1st-2th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0823/029/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength54%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/08/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
03/10/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
14/01/20263rd4/179%75%-0.04
23/02/20264th7/491%57%-0.34
30/03/20262nd13/891%80%-0.11
23/04/20262nd11/1094%75%-0.19
09/09/20261st4/696%100%+0.04