Mi Bella Genio
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 04/01/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 24/01/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 64% | -0.18 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |