4
Brick Ambush
5yo Horse · 8-7 · OR 97
Thistledown · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 23/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |