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5

Mellifluous

5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 86

Thistledown · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Oaklawn Park 22/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 84 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark22/02/2026 · OR 84 par22/02C8OR 84C8 @ Oaklawn Park 07/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 82 · 6f Slo 121 · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 82 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 26/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 83 · 6f 122 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 83 par26/03C8OR 83C5 @ Thistledown 12/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 84 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 84 parC5 @ Thistledown 03/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 85 · 6f 119 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 85 par3/06C5OR 85C5 @ Thistledown 29/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 80 · 5f110y 123 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 80 parC5 @ Thistledown 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 82 · 6f Slo 121 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 82 par21/07C5OR 82C6 @ Thistledown 24/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 6f 121 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 82 parC5 @ Thistledown 16/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 84 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark16/09/2026 · OR 84 par16/09C5OR 84projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-08-24Thistledown?3rd4th−1
2026-07-21Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-06-29Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-06-03Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-05-12Thistledown?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0212/0521/0716/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%

Delivery trend -8.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/02/20267th14/126%40%+0.14
07/03/20264th25/10%57%+0.57
26/03/20265th25/10%43%+0.43
12/05/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
03/06/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
29/06/20263rd15/261%60%-0.01
21/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
24/08/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02
16/09/20265th11/271%20%-0.51