7
Atkins
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 92
Thistledown · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/2026 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 17/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |