Charleston
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 94
Thistledown · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-12-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/12/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 14/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 21/04/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |