Without Objection
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 90
Thistledown · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/02/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |