Dunn's River
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 71
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 20/04/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 08/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |