Laketown Elly
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 63
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-12-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-10-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 18/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 23/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 08/12/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 23/12/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |