IvyArcIvyArc
3

Queen Kitty

4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 66

Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Mahoning Valley 20/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 52 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 52 par20/11C5OR 52C8 @ Thistledown 12/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 56 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 56 parC8 @ Thistledown 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 58 · 5f110y Fas 119 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 58 par2/06C8OR 58C8 @ Thistledown 23/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 62 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 62 parC8 @ Thistledown 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 63 · 5f110y 119 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 63 par1/07C8OR 63C8 @ Thistledown 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 63 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 63 parC8 @ Thistledown 17/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 62 · 5f110y Fas 121 · below its mark17/08/2026 · OR 62 par17/08C8OR 62C5 @ Thistledown 26/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 63 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 63 parC8 @ Thistledown 07/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 61 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 61 par7/09C8OR 61projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-08-26Thistledown?3rd0th+3
2026-08-17Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-07-15Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-07-01Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-06-23Thistledown?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1123/0617/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength60%

Delivery trend -6.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/11/20257th20/10%14%+0.14
12/05/20263rd25/10%78%+0.78
02/06/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
23/06/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
01/07/20262nd10/382%75%-0.07
15/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
17/08/20263rd10/382%50%-0.32
26/08/20263rd15/890%67%-0.23
07/09/20262nd6/168%75%+0.07