Drills Wild Brat
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 64
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 18/12/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 20/06/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 13/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |