2
Spun In Dominus
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
62%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength63%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-03-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 10/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 19/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |