Florida Gal

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 61

Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C8.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-05-02	Tampa Bay Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-04-10	Tampa Bay Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-03-21	Tampa Bay Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-02-12	Tampa Bay Downs	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2025-06-06	Gulfstream	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +12.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
06/06/2025	4th	3/1	84%	25%	-0.59
12/02/2026	7th	20/1	0%	33%	+0.33
21/03/2026	5th	12/1	37%	56%	+0.19
10/04/2026	3rd	5/1	74%	80%	+0.06
02/05/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	71%	+0.19