7
Gamay
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 49
Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 20/06/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |