5
Lady Sweet
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 46
Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |