Lucky Lil Kiss

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 33

Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C8.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-25	Thistledown	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-03-15	Tampa Bay Downs	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-02-28	Tampa Bay Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-02-08	Tampa Bay Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2025-10-31	Gulfstream	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -11.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
31/10/2025	8th	40/1	0%	13%	+0.13
08/02/2026	5th	40/1	0%	43%	+0.43
28/02/2026	5th	25/1	0%	33%	+0.33
15/03/2026	7th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
25/08/2026	7th	12/1	37%	14%	-0.23