6
Spill The Deets
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 43
Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength55%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength73%
Delivery trend +7.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 07/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |