10
Lilie D'omaha
5yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Justicia - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#2
Rank
Odds
35/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Les Sables | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-05 | Vincennes | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Vincennes | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | Vincennes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Vincennes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 02/06/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 13/06/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 19/10/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 28/11/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/12/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 31/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 24/01/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 77% | +0.51 |