14
Keepsake Mossa
6yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Atalante - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Vincennes | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Vincennes | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Chatelaillon | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Le Mans | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Les Sables | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Chartres | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1859% of fieldRange 4-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 10/06/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 89% | -0.04 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 69% | -0.07 |