4
Novialo
3yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Etamin - Attele · 1m 2f 96y
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength12%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Enghien | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Enghien | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Enghien | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength17%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 4/11 | 98% | 57% | -0.41 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |