3
Guardami
4yo Filly · 9-8
Vincennes · Prix Lilius - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
84%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Enghien | 1 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Vincennes | 1 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Vincennes | 1 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Vincennes | 1 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Vincennes | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Vincennes | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
Delivery trend -15.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 29/01/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 88% | -0.09 |
| 22/05/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |