4
Lucas
5yo Gelding · 10-3
Vincennes · Prix Lilius - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#4
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 2
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Argentan | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-09 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-22 | Chateaubriant | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-27 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-21 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-21 | Vincennes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2024 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 15/12/2024 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/01/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 01/02/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 03/05/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/05/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 10/06/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 03/10/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |