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9

Mack Dairpet

4yo Gelding · 9-13

Vincennes · Prix Lilius - Monte · 1m 5f 92y

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength31%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Vincennes 14/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 13214/10C?C0 @ Vincennes 10/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 132C0 @ Vincennes 20/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 13220/11C?1 @ Vincennes 31/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Vincennes 17/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 13917/02C?1 @ Vincennes 10/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Meslay Du Maine 28/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR - · 1m6f36y Std 028/07C?1 @ Enghien 14/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 1m3f40y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS2 @ Lisieux 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 1m5f120y Std 029/082projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Lisieux24th4th0
2026-08-14Enghien18th7th+1
2026-07-28Meslay Du Maine?10th10th0
2026-04-10Vincennes12nd1st+1
2026-02-17Vincennes?3rd3rd0
2026-01-31Vincennes12nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/1031/0128/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/10/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
10/11/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
20/11/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
31/01/20262nd5/174%88%+0.14
17/02/20263rd5/287%75%-0.12
10/04/20262nd15/261%90%+0.29
28/07/202610th66/10%44%+0.44
14/08/20268th22/10%46%+0.46
29/08/20264th80/10%75%+0.75