1
Magnoliadarche
4yo Gelding · 9-13
Vincennes · Prix Lilius - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#9
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Vincennes | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Enghien | 1 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Enghien | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Vincennes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Vincennes | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Vincennes | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 31/01/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/02/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 80/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 14/08/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 12/09/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |