5
Mephisto Du Clos
4yo Gelding · 9-10
Vincennes · Prix Lilius - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chartres | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-17 | Vincennes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Vincennes | 1 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Vincennes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Vincennes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 23/08/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 21/09/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.66 |
| 10/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 78% | +0.36 |
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 31/01/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 17/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 11/09/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |