1
Arlecchino's Rex
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 50
Wolverhampton · bet365 Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 51y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lingfield | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 02/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 16/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 11/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 21/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |