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10

Project Kinsman

3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 45

Wolverhampton · bet365 Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#7

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hasn't kicked on since placing on first 2 handicap starts at Newcastle (1¼m) in April/May. Always behind on return to that track (1½m) last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 04/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 6f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/1054 @ Newcastle 19/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 7f14y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 50 · 1m2f42y Std 120 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 50 par13/046OR 506 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 49 · 1m2f42y Std 119 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 48 · 1m2f42y Std 122 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 48 par2/066OR 486 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 47 · 1m4f14y Std 122 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Catterick 22/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 46 · 1m4f13y GF 129 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 46 par22/076OR 466 @ Catterick 04/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 46 · 1m4f13y Goo 119 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 45 · 1m4f98y Std 126 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 45 par19/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newcastle610th10th0
2026-08-04Catterick65th5th0
2026-07-22Catterick63rd3rd0
2026-06-18Southwell65th5th0
2026-06-02Newcastle68th8th0
2026-05-01Newcastle63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/101/0522/0719/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength33%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20258th125/10%13%+0.13
19/03/20268th200/10%30%+0.30
13/04/20262nd11/142%83%+0.41
01/05/20263rd11/142%71%+0.29
02/06/20268th5/174%42%-0.32
18/06/20265th33/10%20%+0.20
22/07/20263rd28/10%67%+0.67
04/08/20265th33/10%43%+0.43
19/09/202610th9/153%10%-0.43