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9

This Rib

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 48

Wolverhampton · bet365 Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#9

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finished 6 lengths fourth in a Southwell maiden (7f) this time last year. Only matched that form in handicaps, not helped by his free-going ways on recent starts over 1½m/1¾m (isn't bred to stay this far).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 20/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 7f36y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS20/0955 @ Southwell 03/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f14y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS18/1055 @ Wolverhampton 16/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 61 · 1m142y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 58 · 1m5f26y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 58 par6/075OR 586 @ Leicester 29/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 56 · 1m3f179y Goo 126 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 52 · 1m5f192y Goo 126 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 52 par26/086OR 526 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 50 · 1m5f219y Std 122 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 50 par15/096OR 50projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton66th6th0
2026-08-26Catterick66th6th0
2026-07-29Leicester64th4th0
2026-07-06Ayr55th4th+1
2026-06-16Wolverhampton511th10th+1
2026-05-21Haydock5+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0916/0626/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%

Delivery trend -7.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20258th25/10%36%+0.36
03/10/20254th10/147%57%+0.10
18/10/20256th22/10%44%+0.44
16/06/202611th40/10%17%+0.17
06/07/20265th33/10%43%+0.43
29/07/20264th7/163%0%-0.63
26/08/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
15/09/20266th12/137%38%+0.01