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Lowcountry

2yo Gelding · 9-7

Wolverhampton · Rockspur CIC EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 5f 21y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Left debut form well behind when third in 10-runner novice at this course (6f) 17 days ago, encouragingly going on the bridle longer than any bar the winner. Has to be of interest with the drop to 5f a potentially good move.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Salisbury 21/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f Goo 13021/0855 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f20y Std 13015/095projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton53rd3rd0
2026-08-21Salisbury510th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +59.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/202610th40/10%18%+0.18
15/09/20263rd40/10%78%+0.78