4
Lahan Kingman
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 70
Wolverhampton · bet365 Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 20y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-05 | Newbury | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 17/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |