5
Moonlight Melody
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 67
Wolverhampton · bet365 Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 20y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Catterick | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |